I must admit that despite Kambu Mara Camp being located near Naboisho and Nashulai Conservancies, which are known as ‘big-cat-country-conservancies,’ we haven’t had any big cat sightings except for lions. My last sighting of a cheetah was in Musiara Marsh, and I have yet to see one in Southern Mara where Kambu is located. Like other visitors to the Mara, I found myself wondering just how many cheetahs call this vast landscape home. My curiosity led me to peruse all the available Mara Predator Conservation Programme (MPCP) reports, uncovering valuable insights into these elusive predators.
The Mara Predator Conservation Programme (MPCP)
The MPCP has been at the forefront of monitoring and conserving cheetah populations in the Maasai Mara ecosystem. Their Q1 2024 Technical Report provides the most recent and detailed insights into the status of these majestic predators.
Current Population Status
As of 2023, the Maasai Mara National Reserve and its surrounding conservancies are home to an estimated 28 independent resident cheetahs. This marks an increase from the 23 individuals recorded in 2022. However, it is important to note that during this period, the study area expanded from 2,581 km² in 2022 to 2,713 km² in 2023, which may have contributed to the higher count.
Population Dynamics Over the Years
The cheetah population in the Maasai Mara has experienced fluctuations over the past few years:
| Year | Cheetah Population |
|---|---|
| 2018 | 30 |
| 2019 | 32 |
| 2020 | 35 |
| 2021 | 32 |
| 2022 | 22 |
| 2023 | 28 |
These variations highlight the dynamic nature of cheetah populations and underscore the importance of continuous monitoring.
Sex Ratio Concerns
A notable concern from the 2023 data is the decline in the female-to-male sex ratio, with fewer adult females observed. This shift could have implications for future population stability, as a balanced sex ratio is crucial for healthy reproduction and genetic diversity.
Population of Mara Cheetahs with Undercounting Adjustments;
Based on the cheetah density recorded in the 2023 study area (2,713 km²) and applying it to the entire Maasai Mara ecosystem (3,310 km² including conservancies and the reserve), the estimated total cheetah population would be approximately 34 individuals.
However, considering that sightings and survey technology may miss some cheetahs, a more realistic estimate—accounting for 10-20% undercounting—suggests the true cheetah population in the Maasai Mara ecosystem could be between:
- ~38 cheetahs (10% undercount adjustment)
- ~41 cheetahs (20% undercount adjustment)
Thus, a reasonable range for the total Maasai Mara cheetah population in 2024 would likely be between 34 and 41 cheetahs.
How about the Masai Mara cheetah population figure of 300?
As I dug deeper into the cheetah population estimates for the Maasai Mara, I repeatedly came across claims that the Mara-Serengeti ecosystem is home to 300 cheetahs. However, after reviewing multiple sources, including the Mara Predator Conservation Programme (MPCP) reports, scientific studies, and conservation organizations, I could not find a credible source that explains how the figure of 300 was arrived at, by which research institution, or in which year.
The most comprehensive and scientifically-backed estimates come from MPCP surveys, which have consistently placed the resident cheetah population in the Maasai Mara at under 50 individuals. The highest recorded figure in the last decade was 35 cheetahs in 2020, followed by fluctuations between 22 and 32 individuals in recent years.
It is important to note that cheetahs in the Mara have traditionally struggled with breeding success, with cases of gene lock due to interbreeding. This is a major factor limiting population growth despite the availability of prey and habitat. The Mara-Meru Cheetah Project has been working to study these genetic bottlenecks and explore ways to get the population to rebound again.
In all the peer-reviewed studies and expert conservation reports I reviewed, no credible estimate placed the Mara’s cheetah population above 50 individuals. This figure is also in line with those indicated by analysis done by Kambu Campers on its blog.
This suggests that claims of 300 cheetahs in the Mara alone are not supported by scientific research and may result from misinterpretations of broader ecosystem estimates, which might include Serengeti populations or transient cheetahs moving between ecosystems.
Comparisons with Broader Ecosystem Estimates
While some sources suggest that the larger Mara-Serengeti ecosystem houses approximately 300 cheetahs, the MPCP’s focused studies within the Maasai Mara indicate a significantly smaller population. This discrepancy underscores the need for localized studies to obtain accurate population assessments.
Historical Population Trends
The MPCP’s long-term monitoring has provided valuable insights into cheetah population trends:
- 2018: 30 independent resident cheetahs recorded.
- 2019: Slight increase to 32 individuals.
- 2020: Further increase to 35 individuals.
- 2021: Decrease to 32 individuals.
- 2022: Significant drop to 22 individuals.
- 2023: Rebound to 28 individuals.
These trends highlight the variability in cheetah populations and the potential influence of factors such as habitat changes, prey availability, and human-wildlife interactions.
How many cheetahs are left in the world?
Cheetahs (Acinonyx jubatus) are among the most endangered big cats, with their populations in steady decline due to habitat loss, human-wildlife conflict, poaching, and declining genetic diversity. As of 2024, the global cheetah population is estimated to be between 6,500 and 7,100 individuals, with most wild cheetahs found in Africa and a critically small population of the Asiatic cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus venaticus) surviving in Iran.
According to the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), the global cheetah population breakdown is as follows:
- Southern Africa (Namibia, Botswana, South Africa, Angola, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Mozambique) – Largest remaining population (~4,500 individuals)
- East Africa (Kenya, Tanzania) – Estimated 1,200 – 1,500 cheetahs
- West and Central Africa (Niger, Chad, Mali, Cameroon, Burkina Faso) – Critically low populations (~250 individuals)
- Iran (Asiatic cheetah) – Fewer than 20 individuals, making it functionally extinct in the wild
How many Cheetahs in Kenya?
Estimates of Kenya’s cheetah population vary, with figures ranging from 716 to 1,500 individuals. The World Population Review places the number at ~716, while the Mara Meru Cheetah Project suggests a population closer to 1,500, and Action for Cheetahs in Kenya (ACK) estimates fewer than 1,200. The discrepancies highlight the challenges of surveying this wide-ranging species, but Kenya remains a critical stronghold for East African cheetahs. Major threats include habitat loss, human-wildlife conflict, and poaching, with conservation initiatives working to protect and stabilize their numbers.
Future Conservation Concerns
A recent study published in PNAS (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences) highlights that cheetahs have lost 91% of their historic range, now surviving mainly in fragmented, unprotected landscapes where they face increased risk of human-wildlife conflict. The species is currently listed as Vulnerable on the IUCN Red List, with populations in North and West Africa classified as Critically Endangered.
The declining genetic diversity of cheetahs, especially in small, isolated populations such as those in the Maasai Mara, poses a serious threat to their long-term survival. Conservation initiatives, such as reintroduction programs, protected area management, and cross-border collaborations, are essential to prevent further population declines.
Conservation Efforts and Challenges
The MPCP emphasizes the importance of continuous monitoring to understand and address the challenges facing cheetahs in the Maasai Mara. Key conservation strategies include:
- Habitat Protection: Ensuring that the expansion of human activities does not encroach upon critical cheetah habitats.
- Community Engagement: Working with local communities to promote coexistence and reduce human-wildlife conflict.
- Research and Monitoring: Conducting regular surveys to track population dynamics, health, and behavior of cheetahs.
Conclusion
While the cheetah population in Maasai Mara remains relatively low compared to other predators, conservation efforts remain vital to ensure their long-term survival. My personal experience at Kambu Mara Camp, located near known big-cat conservancies, highlights the elusive nature of cheetahs and the importance of understanding their movements within the ecosystem. Through scientific research, conservation initiatives, and community involvement, there is hope that the Maasai Mara can continue to support and even increase its resident cheetah population in the coming years.
Also read:
Further Reading